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Cardano (ADA) has weakened more than 20% since June 07, 2024, falling from $0.49 to a low of $0.35.

The current price of ADA stands at $0.39, and the risk of further decline is still not over. A general market decline has impacted Cardano’s price but it is also important to mention that Cardano has witnessed a decline in large transaction volume in the last several weeks.

According to on-chain data, some of the biggest holders of ADA reduced their trading activity and only last month, the daily count of ADA transactions worth between $1 million and $10 million has dropped by 33%. Similarly, the daily number of transactions valued at $10 million or more has decreased by 24% in the past 30 days.

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss ADA price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

ADA experienced a decline in large trades

Cardano is a blockchain platform that allows transactions in its native cryptocurrency ADA, and enables developers to build secure and scalable applications powered by it. Cardano is connected with various payment programs, and it is important to say that a variety of projects have been built on the Cardano platform.

Cardano users need to buy ADA to facilitate transactions and participate in governance. Ownership of the token determines who gets to be a slot leader and add new blocks, and who earns a share of fees paid for transactions in blocks. ADA tokens are also used for voting on software policies, such as inflation rate, giving participants an incentive to hold ADA and ensure its future value.

Similar to numerous other cryptocurrencies, Cardano (ADA) remains under pressure after Bitcoin’s price weakened below $65,000. However, the decline in Cardano’s (ADA) price is not solely due to Bitcoin’s negative trend and it also reflects a significant decrease in the number of large trades involving ADA.

Transactions are falling

According to on-chain data, only in the past month, the daily number of ADA transactions worth between $1 million and $10 million has fallen by 33%. Similarly, the daily number of transactions valued at $10 million or more has declined by 24% over the last 30 days. Because of this, crypto analysts agree that understanding the reasons behind the decrease in large trades is crucial for accurately assessing the potential impact on ADA.

Large trades often contribute significantly to the liquidity and a decrease in such trades can reduce the overall liquidity, making it more difficult for traders to buy or sell large amounts of ADA without affecting the market price. With reduced liquidity, the market may become more susceptible to price swings and potential investors should keep in mind that smaller trades could have a more pronounced impact on ADA’s price then.

At the same time, a decline in large trades might be interpreted as waning confidence among large holders or institutional investors. This could negatively affect market sentiment and potentially lead to further declines in ADA’s price as other investors follow suit.

Rating: 9.17/10
Supply: 34,159,599,616 / 44,999,999,488
Release date: January 15, 2015

Description: Discover Cardano and be part of the cryptocurrency revolution.

Risk warning: Trading, buying or selling crypto currencies is extremely risky and not for everyone. Do not risk money that you could not afford to loose.

A failed spam attack on the Cardano blockchain

On June 25, the Cardano network experienced a DDoS attack starting at block 10,487,530. However, the attempt was unsuccessful and was mitigated before any bigger damage was done, and the network continued to operate normally. Raul Antonio, chief technology officer of Fluid Tokens, explained that the attack aimed to manipulate the Cardano blockchain into charging lower fees for high-value transactions.

Negative information is that the Cardano network has been experiencing a higher load than normal due to the spam attack. This has caused some stake pool operators (SPOs) to face difficulties, primarily due to an intensification in block height battles. A failed spam attack on the Cardano blockchain prompted developers to work on a node upgrade designed to prevent future distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks of a similar nature.

In response to the incident, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson shared an update on social media from Intersect, a member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson also said that Cardano continues to function as expected, with only a small impact on overall transaction timings and some reduction in chain density.

He thanked the Cardano community for its support in identifying the source of the spam attack, while Intersect disclosed that it has coordinated a technical task force with partners from the ecosystem to identify potential solutions and complement the community’s efforts in resolving the issue.

Moving forward, the task force will focus on identifying and testing a solution to mitigate such spam attacks. Updates will be regularly communicated to the community through Discord and social channels. Once the solution has been thoroughly tested and implemented, the new node version available for upgrade by SPOs will be publicly released.

Technical analysis for ADA

ADA has weakened from $0.49 to $0.35 since June 07, 2024, and the current price stands at $0.39. ADA might have a hard time holding above the $0.35 level in the upcoming days, and a break below this level would indicate that ADA could test the price level at $0.30.

Technical analysis for ADA

Important support & resistance levels for ADA

Important support & resistance levels for ADA

On this chart (the period from January 2024), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders understand where the price could move. ADA currently remains under pressure, but if the price advances above $0.45, the next target could be an important resistance level at $0.50. The strong support level is $0.35, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $0.30. If the price drops below $0.30, which also represents an important support level, the next target could be located around $0.25.

What speaks for the rise in the ADA price

General market sentiment is an important factor that influences ADA’s price but positive news, partnerships, and developments related to Cardano can attract investors and traders, pushing the price up.

Analysts and traders often closely watch the activity of crypto whales because the behavior of crypto whales can influence market sentiment and an increase in the number of big transactions for ADA is something that could drive the price higher. When a whale makes a substantial buy, it can be seen as a bullish sign, potentially attracting more buyers.

What indicates a downfall for ADA

When the price of Bitcoin drops, that usually has a negative influence on the price of ADA and on the rest of the cryptocurrency market, but we can also not forget that regulations on the cryptocurrency market can be a threat to this cryptocurrency in the future.

There has also been a significant drop in the number of whale transactions for ADA in the last several weeks, and when whales reduce their trading activity (transactions worth $100,000 and above), it usually indicates that they are losing confidence in the underlying coin’s short-term price prospects. The price of ADA is currently trading above $0.35, but a break below this level would indicate that ADA could probably test the important support level that stands at $0.30.

What do analysts and experts say?

ADA has been moving in a downtrend since March 14, 2024, and many crypto analysts say that the fact that investors have lost interest in accumulating ADA indicates that we will continue to see low prices for this crypto. ADA is a highly risky investment, and its price can fluctuate dramatically over short periods, leading to substantial gains or losses for investors.

It’s essential to conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and only invest what you can afford to lose when considering investing in ADA. There are also expectations of “market turbulence” from looming recession concerns, and many analysts expect that the U.S. central bank could keep interest rates at restrictive levels for a longer period, which is not good for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

by Our Certified Author
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