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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on May 23, 2024, which marked a significant milestone for the crypto industry. However, Ethereum (ETH) has weakened from $3,973 to $3,351 since May 27, 2024, and the current price stands at $3,524.

Despite the positive news of the SEC’s approval of spot Ether ETFs, some crypto analysts caution that this approval does not necessarily confirm Ethereum’s status as a security. This ongoing ambiguity keeps some investors on edge, as the regulatory classification of Ethereum remains a significant concern​.

The SEC’s decision to approve these ETFs may be seen as a step forward, but it does not fully resolve the broader regulatory uncertainties surrounding Ethereum, which could continue to affect investor confidence. The latest information is that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) surprised the crypto industry on June 19, 2024, when it officially closed its investigation into whether Ether (ETH) is a security. So where is the price of Ethereum (ETH) going next, and what can we expect from July 2024?

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Ethereum (ETH) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

The SEC is once again in the spotlight for investors

Ethereum (ETH), the second biggest digital asset, weakened from its recent highs and some broader regulatory uncertainties surrounding Ethereum could continue to affect investor confidence. Despite the positive news of the SEC’s approval of spot Ether ETFs, some crypto analysts caution that this approval does not necessarily confirm Ethereum’s status as a security.

The approval, announced on May 23, 2024, marks a significant milestone for the crypto industry, and several asset managers, including Grayscale, Fidelity, and Bitwise, received the green light to list their spot Ethereum ETFs on U.S. exchanges​. However, these ETFs will not begin trading immediately and the next steps involve obtaining the required S-1 registration statement approvals from the SEC.

The timeline for when the ETFs will start trading depends on how quickly the issuers respond to the SEC’s comments and complete the necessary paperwork, which could take a few weeks to months​. The latest information is that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) surprised the crypto industry on June 19, 2024, when it officially closed its investigation into whether Ether (ETH) is a security.

Crypto industry needs a clear regulatory framework

Carol Goforth, a professor specializing in business associations and securities regulation at the University of Arkansas School of Law,  also has an opinion that the SEC’s approval of a spot Ether ETF does not confirm that ETH is classified as a security which contributed to investor uncertainty​.

Carol Goforth suspects the SEC “concluded that it would be difficult to prove that ETH is a security under the Howey investment contract test because of how widely the asset is held and traded, and how much market forces dictate profitability.” She said that the SEC may have wanted to avoid a discomfiting defeat:

“Previous statements made by SEC officials about the likely classification of Ether might have been embarrassing to an agency that claims classification is ‘clear.’”

The crypto industry’s main complaint is that the SEC has not consistently provided guidance on how the Howey test applies to Ethereum and crypto analysts claim that the industry needs a “clear regulatory framework. The ongoing struggle for a clear regulatory framework in the U.S. crypto industry remains challenging and the rapid development of blockchain technology and the proliferation of various cryptocurrencies make it difficult for regulators to keep pace.

Regulators are tasked with protecting investors and maintaining market integrity so striking the right balance between fostering technological advancements and ensuring robust regulatory oversight is a complex and ongoing challenge.

Technical analysis for Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has weakened from $3,973 to $3,351 since May 27, 2024, and the current price stands at $3,524. Despite this correction, traders should keep in mind that as long the price of ETH is above the trend line which I marked on the chart below, there is no risk of a bigger sell-off and this crypto remains in a “BUY” zone.

Technical analysis for Ethereum (ETH)

Important support & resistance levels for Ethereum (ETH)

Important support & resistance levels for Ethereum (ETH)

On this chart (the period from January 2024), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders understand where the price could move. ETH is currently trading below its recent highs, but if the price jumps above $3,800, the next target could be resistance at $4,000. The important support level is $3,200 and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $3,000. If the price drops below $2,800, which represents another important support level, the next target could be $2,500 or even below.

What speaks for the rise in the Ethereum (ETH) price

The rise in the Ethereum (ETH) price can be attributed to several factors, including regulatory news, technological advancements, market dynamics, and broader economic trends. The ongoing development and implementation of Ethereum upgrades together with the exponential growth of DeFi applications, which largely run on the Ethereum network, can drive price increases.

Analysts and traders also often closely watch the activity of crypto whales because the behavior of crypto whales can influence market sentiment and an increase in the number of big transactions for ETH is something that could drive the price higher. When a whale makes a substantial buy, it can be seen as a bullish sign, potentially attracting more buyers.

What indicates a downfall for Ethereum (ETH)

A shift in market sentiment towards pessimism, influenced by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, or negative news about Ethereum or the broader cryptocurrency market, can lead to a price decline.

The rise of competing blockchain platforms (e.g., Binance Smart Chain, Solana, Cardano) that offer similar or superior features (e.g., higher scalability, lower fees) can divert users and developers away from Ethereum. Ethereum has an important support level at $3,200, and a break below this level would indicate that ETH could probably test the next psychological support level which stands at $3,000.

What do analysts and experts say?

Crypto analysts agree that while Ethereum has strong fundamentals and a robust ecosystem, it is not immune to various risks that can lead to a decline in its price. Carol Goforth, a professor specializing in business associations and securities regulation at the University of Arkansas School of Law said that the SEC’s approval of a spot Ether ETF does not confirm that ETH is classified as a security which contributed to current investor uncertainty​.

Carol Goforth suspects the SEC “concluded that it would be difficult to prove that ETH is a security under the Howey investment contract test because of how widely the asset is held and traded, and how much market forces dictate profitability.

Crypto analysts outlined two potential scenarios for Ethereum in the upcoming weeks and they said that if the price stays above $3,500, the bull market could continue in line with the ongoing cycle. On the other side, crypto analysts warned that breaking through the $3,200 support level could lead to further declines and that they would not be surprised to see Ethereum below $3,000 then.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

by Our Certified Author
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