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Ether (ETH) has weakened more than 10% since the beginning of March, falling from $1.677,63 to a low of $1,370,00. The current price of ETH stands at $1.529,81, which is more than 50% off from its 2022 highs that were registered in April.

But where is the going next, and what can we expect from the rest of March 2023?

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Ether’s price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

The risk of further decline is not over

The last two weeks have been a rough period for the cryptocurrency market, and all major cryptocurrencies have been suffering due to hawkish messages from major central banks, regulatory pressures, and recent developments around Silvergate Bank.

Silvergate Bank announced last week that it would be voluntarily undergoing liquidation, and according to Edward Moya, the analyst at OANDA, Silvergate’s decision is “bad news” that brings risks of further negative effects in the industry.

Silvergate Bank bank was used by many important companies in the crypto industry, and it is important to say that Bitstamp, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Paxos, Circle, and Galaxy Digital took it to publicly sever their relationships with Silvergate but reported that customers’ funds are safe.

As a result, cryptocurrency investors started to offload their assets from the exchanges, and the consensus appears that the price of Ethereum could drop much lower before reaching the bottom of the ongoing bear market.

At the same time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues with efforts to bring crypto operators within the U.S. under the same regulatory framework that governs the sale of all sorts of securities — to treat cryptocurrencies much like stocks and bonds. The debate surrounding whether Ether should be classified as a security token in the United States is not new but is leading to a lack of investor confidence.

While the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair believes Ethereum is a commodity rather than a security, New York Attorney General Letitia James disagrees. New York Attorney General Letitia James said last week that crypto exchange KuCoin was required to register before selling Ethereum and added:

“This action is one of the first times a regulator is claiming in court that ETH, one of the largest cryptocurrencies available, is security. The petition argues that ETH, just like LUNA and UST, is a speculative asset that relies on the efforts of third-party developers in order to provide profit to the holders of ETH.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably continue with aggressive monetary policy

Another negative news is that the Federal Reserve will probably continue with aggressive monetary policy, which could dent even more sentiment on the cryptocurrency market. Latest data showed that the U.S. added 311,000 new jobs in February, which is significantly above the expectations of 223,000 additions, and there are projections that the U.S. central bank might raise interest rates by 50 bps this month.

Investors have once again witnessed the paradox of bad “good” news, and according to the well-established narrative, the fall of the cryptocurrency market was triggered by the assumption that for the U.S. central bank, rising employment could be an argument to continue with its hawkish monetary policy or even increases the pace of the interest rate hikes.

The U.S. economy faces recession risk that could dent crypto market sentiment even more, and the main question still remains how much time Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels to get inflation under control.

In light of this, ETH might have a hard time holding above the current price levels, while Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio believes that financial markets will be in a poor state for the next five years, and according to Dalio, the same rule will most likely apply to the cryptocurrency market.

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Technical analysis for Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has weakened from $1.677,63 to $1,370,00 since the beginning of March, and the current price stands at $1.529,81. Ethereum might have a hard time holding above the $1.400,00 level in the upcoming weeks, and a break below this level would indicate that ETH could probably test the price level at $1.300,00.

Technical analysis for Ethereum (ETH)

Important support & resistance levels for Ethereum (ETH)

Important support & resistance levels for Ethereum (ETH)

On this chart (the period from June 2022), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders to understand where the price could move. Ethereum has weakened from its recent highs above $1.670,00, but if the price advances again above the resistance that stands at $1.800,00, the next target could be important resistance at $2.000,00.

The current support level is $1.400,00, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $1.200,00. If the price drops below $1.200,00, which represents an important support level, the next target could be located around $1.000,00.

What speaks for the rise in the Ethereum (ETH) price

The upside potential for Ethereum (ETH) probably remains limited for the rest of March 2023; still, if the price advances above the resistance that stands at $1.800,00, the next target could be at $2.000,00. It is also important to note that any news that gives hope that the Fed is becoming less hawkish is viewed as a positive for cryptocurrencies, and Ethereum could advance from the current price level if the Federal Reserve increases interest rates less than analysts expect at its meeting on March 21.

What indicates further downfall for Ethereum (ETH)

The sentiment on the cryptocurrency market is still not able to show notable positive signs, pressured by the news as the Silvergate Bank stated that it would close its operations. The latest economic data from the United States also indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to push further into the restrictive territory, and because of this, the consensus appears that the price of Ethereum could drop below the current price levels in the upcoming days.

The price of ETH is currently above the support level that stands at $1.400,00, but a break below this level would indicate that ETH could test the next support level, which stands at $1.200,00.

What do analysts and experts say?

The fundamentals of Ethereum are strongly tied to the overall cryptocurrency market, which keeps it prone to undergoing additional downtrends. The consensus appears that the price of Ethereum could drop even lower before reaching the bottom of the current bear market. Many analysts expect a global recession that could weigh on stocks and cryptocurrencies even more, and because of this, investors should continue to take a defensive investment approach.

At the same time, the debate surrounding whether Ether should be classified as a security token in the United States is not new but is leading to a lack of investor confidence. Zhou Wei, the former chief financial officer of the Binance exchange and the CEO of the Coins.ph platform said that the crypto market would remain depressed for a long time, with more restrictive regulations coming.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

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