Avalanche (AVAX) and most of the major cryptocurrencies remain under pressure after the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by 75 basis points last week and new events happened in the Ukraine war.

Inflation numbers suggest that the Fed needs to be more aggressive in combat to fight inflation, and investors continue to stay away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. Avalanche (AVAX) has weakened from $30.35 to $16.20 since August 13, 2022, and the current price stands at $17.42. But what is the potential price of AVAX, in the fourth quarter of 2022? Will it go up like a rocket or down like the rain?

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Avalanche (AVAX) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. We are not going to predict the price, but give a technical background about where Avalanche stand right now, and where it might go in the future – based on the support and resistance levels. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a cryptocurrency position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk and how much margin you got if trading with leverage.

Avalanche’s fundamentals are strongly tied to the overall cryptocurrency market

Avalanche is a blockchain that allows you to build decentralized applications. Avalanche can process more than 4,000 transactions per second, and it is one of the fastest smart contracts platforms in the blockchain industry. The popularity of the Avalanche coin is growing, and its flexibility is positioning it as the best option for institutions, enterprises, and governments. Many projects already collaborate with Avalanche, and the most popular ones include Mastercard, Celer, Deloitte, Arweave, Aave, Bitfinex, Ankr, Binance, BitMart, Coinbase, Curve, Sushiswap, Huobi, Nexo, Chainlink, Cartesi, and Celer Network. There is also a fast growing amount on tokens available on Avalanche blockchain, step app, 0x, Aave, Binance USD, Chainlink, Compound, USDT and Uniswap to name a few.

It is important to mention that digital asset company Securitize Capital reported this month that it is set to tokenize an interest in $491 billion asset management firm KKR’s Health Care Strategic Growth Fund II (HCSG II) on the Avalanche blockchain. Founder and CEO of Ava Labs Emin Gün Sirer said:

The tokenization of the HCSG II Fund marked a “huge milestone” for the blockchain industry in enabling “real world assets” to move on-chain.

AVAX is the native token of the Avalanche platform, and according to analysts, Avalanche’s fundamentals are strongly tied to the overall cryptocurrency market, which keeps it prone to undergoing additional downtrends. The upside potential for Avalanche (AVAX) remains limited in Q4, especially after comments from FED that rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024. Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points last week to a 3.00-3.25% range and signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023.

Investors continue to stay away from riskier assets, and going forward, the market is going to be hypersensitive to any sort of Fed comments. Brian Quinlivan, Director of Marketing at Santiment, said that the world remains in a very fragile place; investors have lost interest in accumulating more coins, and traders aren’t trusting much of anything to rise any time soon. AVAX’s price could decline to the $13-$15 range in the upcoming weeks or even days, and traders should “keep BTC on their watchlist” while placing a short position toward the area, he suggest.

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Technical analysis for Avalanche

After hitting recent highs above $30 on August 13, Avalanche (AVAX) has encountered losses of more than 40%. Avalanche’s fundamentals are strongly tied to the overall cryptocurrency market, and AVAX might have a hard time holding above the $17 level in the upcoming days.

On the chart below, I marked the trendline, and as long the price of Avalanche is below this trendline, we can’t talk about a trend reversal, and the price of AVAX remains in the SELL-ZONE.

Avalanche price on a long term trend

Main support & resistance levels for Avalanche

Avalanche support and resistance level versus USDT

On this chart (the period from February 2022), I marked the main support and resistance levels that can help traders to understand where the price could move. Avalanche (AVAX) remains in the “bearish phase, “but if the price jumps above $40, it could be a sign of the trend reversal, and the next target could be located around $50. The current support level is $15, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $13. If the price drops below $13, the next target could be located around $10, which represents a strong support level.

What speaks for the rise in the Avalanche price

The last several months have been extremely taff for the cryptocurrency market, and cryptocurrencies have been suffering from heavy selling due to hawkish signals from central banks and uncertainty because of the Ukraine crisis.

Avalanche (AVAX) remains in the “bearish phase, “but if the price advances above $40, it could be a sign of the negative trend reversal, and the next target could be located around $50. Traders should also consider that the price of Avalanche is correlated with Bitcoin, and if the price of Bitcoin jumps above $22000, we can see AVAX at higher price levels.

What indicates further downfall for Avalanche

Avalanche’s fundamentals are strongly tied to the overall cryptocurrency market, which keeps it prone to undergoing additional downtrends. The upside potential for Avalanche (AVAX) remains limited in Q4, especially after comments from FED that rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024.

Economists have warned that a global recession could be on the horizon, and the consensus appears that the price of AVAX will drop even more. The price of AVAX currently stands above $17, but if the price drops below $15, which represents the important support level, the next target could be located around $13 or even $10.

Avalanche price expectations from analysts and experts

The fourth quarter of 2022 will likely be a tough period for Avalanche (AVAX), and according to Craig Erlam, a Senior Market Analyst at Oanda, the outlook for risk appetite in the near term is not looking good. The U.S. central bank lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points last week to a 3.00-3.25% range and signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. Fund manager Peter Schiff said that a lack of institutional support and a strict monetary policy are inalienable parts of the bear market, which will continue for quite some time, according to the current macro environment. Brian Quinlivan, Director of Marketing at Santiment, said that the world remains fragile; investors have lost interest in accumulating more coins, and traders aren’t trusting much of anything to rise any time soon.


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