In news that was only truly surprising to the non-crypto folk out there, Bitcoin broke it’s November 2021 all time high (ATH) yesterday for a moment before plunging donwards in a not-too-surprising correction.
Bitcoin soared to a new record peak of $69,200 on Tuesday, only to plunge to around $59,700 shortly after in a sharp sell off. This suggests it might naturally drift back towards a former support level, like $64,000 or possibly $61,000, before trying once more to definitively surpass the $69,000 threshold.
The question many people have is, what now, in terms of big moves? Will, after the inevitable correction, the coin repeat three of the four previous cycles and double in price within 18-20 days? Or will it tank further downward than many anticipated? It’s going to be a rollercoaster few weeks, and indeed month until we hit the notorious halving.
However, one thing to point out is that this cycle might be different to previous ones. And, it already is, giving that for the first time in its history, Bitcoin broke the ATH prior to a halving. Crypto Lists is going to explore some possibilities and shed light on some interesting tidbits.
Institutional capital: the game changer?
One of the differences – if not the main one – is the huge influx of ‘big finance’ capital. In their quest to snatch precious BTC from diamond-handed HODLers, they’ve driven the price far higher than any of the so-called crypto analysts that populate Twitter/X predicted. It really could be a game changer.
When big players step into the game, everything changes, especially the impact they bring. These big institutions have deep pockets, talking billions or even trillions of dollars, which is something Bitcoin hasn’t really seen before. This huge buying power shifts the conversation. Before, everyone was worried about not having enough Bitcoin to go around (that’s the liquidity issue), but now, the big talk is all about how their massive investments are making Bitcoin’s price swing like crazy.
How does the halving work?
Our apologies, perhaps you’re not crypto geeks like us and are looking at “halving” this and “halving” that, and wondering what on earth we’re talking about. We don’t blame you! So before we get ahead of ourselves, let us explain the best we can…
You can dive deeper into this topic by checking out our bitcoin halving guide. But let’s break it down into simpler terms. Picture Bitcoin as a virtual gold mine. In this mine, miners use computers instead of shovels and pickaxes to crack complex puzzles. When they solve one, they earn Bitcoin. This process is known as “mining,” and it’s how new Bitcoins are made and put into circulation.
Here’s where the concept of “halving” comes into play. To control Bitcoin’s supply (similar to how real gold is scarce), the reward for mining a new block is halved approximately every four years. This event is called the Bitcoin halving.
Imagine it as a game where the number of gold coins you receive for finishing a level gets slashed by half after you hit certain checkpoints. Initially, miners got 50 Bitcoins per block. After the first halving, it went down to 25, then 12.5, and it keeps halving like this.
The halving is a significant event because it slows down the creation of new Bitcoins, making them rarer. This scarcity can influence Bitcoin’s price, as the supply of new coins decreases while demand may remain steady or increase. It’s similar to how gold would become more valuable if it suddenly became rarer to find on Earth.
“Send it higher”?
Perhaps this dip back downwards after breaking the ATH is very temporary and we’ll see it continue to skyrocket to the moon over the coming weeks and months past the halving and beyond.
Some people online, who many consider authorities on the subject, are talking about something they call a ‘left translated cycle’. It’s a fancy way of saying that the peak of the cycle might show up sooner than in past cycles.
So, for this four-year cycle that kicked off around December 2022 or January 2023, the top might actually hit in 2024, not in 2025 like everyone was thinking. If that happens in 2024, we could see a super quick surge in prices over a few months (known as a ‘blow off top’), only for it to drop bit by bit until the cycle wraps up at the end of 2026 (the market bottom where Bitcoin maximalists start buying again). But here’s the kicker: with these once-in-a-lifetime huge investments coming from big institutions, predicting anything for sure is pretty much a shot in the dark.
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“Send it down”?
Of course, the inverse is a possibility too. We could see a large correction over the next few weeks and then a sharp upturn post halving. Or the downward swing could continue even beyond that, picking up again in the autumn or even next year in the latest case scenario. Bitcoin maximalists won’t be perturbed, they’ll see any major correction or even outright capitulation as a buying opportunity to be seized upon.
Some – notably anti-crypto establishment publications – have noted the recent surge has taken bitcoin prices far above the cost of production. For BTC in the past that has not been sustainable. Could this also tell its own tale? We can only speculate.
Time for a ‘supercycle’?
A supercycle in Bitcoin refers to a period where Bitcoin, and often the broader cryptocurrency market, experiences an extraordinary boom in value and investor interest. This isn’t just any regular upswing in prices; it’s more like a massive wave of growth that goes beyond the usual cycles of highs and lows.
In a nutshell, a supercycle is driven by a unique combination of factors that supercharge interest and investment in Bitcoin. For example, if major companies start accepting Bitcoin as payment, or if countries begin to integrate it into their financial systems, these actions could fuel this kind of event.
However, just like any rollercoaster, what goes up must eventually come down. Any theoretical supercycle would likely be followed by significant corrections or downturns when the initial excitement wears off, or when the factors driving the boom start to fade. But the key thing about a supercycle is that it represents a period of intense growth that could potentially reshape the landscape of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, making it an exciting, if somewhat unpredictable, ride for everyone involved. The Wild West returns (OK, with a little bit of regulation involved)!
A boost for burgeoning Bitcoin casinos?
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It’s kind of a dichotomy, since you’d think a rising market might make people want to HODL, and it does with many. But there are also lots of other people who are attracted to gambling when the market goes up. Perhaps they’re feeling extra lucky! Are you too?
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Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.
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