Monero (XMR) has advanced more than 20% since March 10, 2023, rising from $132.00 to a high of $166.39. The current price of Monero (XMR) stands at $161.85, and for now, bulls continue to control the price movement.
But where is the price of XMR going next, and what can we expect from the rest of the second quarter of 2023?
Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Monero (XMR) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.
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- 1 A focus on anonymity
- 2 Market features high correlation with U.S. equities
- 3 Technical analysis for Monero (XMR)
- 4 Important support & resistance levels for Monero (XMR)
- 5 What speaks for the rise in the Monero (XMR) price
- 6 What indicates the downfall of Monero (XMR)
- 7 What do analysts and experts say?
A focus on anonymity
Monero is a blockchain with a focus on anonymity, and it is designed to protect the privacy of the sender (or receiver) of coins. Aside from its privacy features, Monero’s coin works similarly to other major cryptocurrencies, using proof-of-work mining to control the issuance of XMR and to incentivize miners to add blocks to the blockchain.
The last several weeks have been very successful for Monero (XMR), and the price of this crypto has added more than 20% to its value since March 10. While bullish predictions are being maintained for Monero (XMR)’s price, investors should continue to take a defensive investment approach as the macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain.
The cryptocurrency market found its footing after the recent banking sector turmoil, but things could take a turn for the worse over the next few months as the economy bears the brunt of aggressive rate hikes.
According to the World Bank, global growth this year is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The famous investor Jeremy Grantham warns another epic bubble in financial markets is bursting, and the turmoil that swept through the banking sector was just the beginning.
Market features high correlation with U.S. equities
According to Jeremy Grantham, the U.S. stock market could experience significant losses over the coming months, and the best we can hope for is a fall of about 27% from current levels, while the worst-case scenario would see a plunge of more than 50%.
The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.
At the same time, the crypto industry continues to face unprecedented regulatory pressure in the United States, and according to ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees, the fight between the American government and the crypto industry has just started.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues with efforts to bring crypto operators within the U.S. under the same regulatory framework that governs the sale of all sorts of securities — to treat cryptocurrencies much like stocks and bonds.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has already prepared a draft proposal that could make it hard for hedge funds, private equity firms, and pension funds to work with cryptocurrency-related firms.
The price of Bitcoin has already started a downside correction from the $31,000 zone, and according to some analysts, Bitcoin might decline toward $27,000 this week.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates — the world’s largest hedge fund by assets under management, is even more skeptical about the price of Bitcoin, and he said in a recent interview that Bitcoin could not serve as an “effective currency” because it is too volatile and central banks won’t adopt it.
Market participants should consider that the price of Monero is usually in correlation with Bitcoin, and if the price of Bitcoin drops again below the $28000 price level, that would certainly have a negative influence on the price of Monero.
Technical analysis for Monero (XMR)
Monero (XMR) has advanced from $132 to $166.39 since March 10, 2023, and the current price stands at $161.85. Monero (XMR) might have a hard time holding above the $150 level in the upcoming weeks, and a break below this level would indicate that XMR could probably test the price level at $140.
Important support & resistance levels for Monero (XMR)
On this chart (the period from July 2022), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders to understand where the price could move. Monero (XMR) has weakened from its recent highs, but if the price jumps above the resistance that stands at $180, the next target could be resistance at $200.
The important support level is $150, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $140. If the price drops below $130, which represents another strong support level, the next target could be an important psychological support level that stands at $100.
What speaks for the rise in the Monero (XMR) price
The upside potential for Monero (XMR) probably remains limited for the weeks ahead; still, if the price advances above the resistance that stands at $180, the next target could be resistance at $200.
Traders should also consider that the price of Monero (XMR) is correlated with Bitcoin, and if the price of Bitcoin jumps above $35000, we would probably see this cryptocurrency at a higher price level than the current price.
What indicates the downfall of Monero (XMR)
The price of Monero (XMR) is currently trading above $160, but a break below the $155 level would indicate that XMR could probably test the important support level that stands at $150.
The highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrencies may scare investors again to sell XMR if some negative news happens in the cryptocurrency market, like a bank with large crypto exposure collapsing or a prominent crypto firm going bankrupt.
What do analysts and experts say?
Monero (XMR) has added more than 20% to its value since March 10, but investors should keep in mind that the macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain.
Major central banks continue with an aggressive stance to fight inflation by raising interest rates, and risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies could suffer again in such conditions.
The U.S. central bank is widely seen raising rates by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range next month, and analysts are worried that an aggressive Federal Reserve will push the economy into a recession that could dent corporate earnings and stock markets.
According to the famous investor Jeremy Grantham, the U.S. stock market could experience significant losses over the coming months, and the crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities.
Jeremy Grantham said the best we can hope for is a fall of about 27% from current levels, while the worst-case scenario would see a plunge of more than 50%, and if this happens, Monero (XMR) will certainly be at a much lower price level.
Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.