If you’d asked us a week ago if Bitcoin (BTC) would break it’s November 2021 high in February we would have been pretty doubtful, to put it mildly. If you’d said before the upcoming halving event, even then we’d have been less than optimistic.
However, in a remarkable week it looks like the all time high (ATH) may well be broken before the week is out. Yes indeed, as March 1 rolls around on Friday we might be living in a world where Bitcoin sits at its highest ever point.
In fact, in the past few hours we’ve already seen it break ATH in various countries around the world due to the weakening value of their respective fiat currencies. But more on that later! And, of course it’s in the United States, and to a lesser extent the UK and EU, where people have their eyes firmly fixed.
Update: since publication BTC has passed 60,000 USD.
What is the halving?
Good question and you can find out more in our bitcoin halving guide. But to put it in layman’s terms, here we go. Imagine Bitcoin as a digital gold mine. In this mine, instead of using shovels and pickaxes, people use computers to solve complex puzzles. When they solve a puzzle, they’re rewarded with Bitcoin. This process is called “mining,” and it’s how new Bitcoins are created and added to circulation.
Now, here’s where the “halving” comes in. To keep the supply of Bitcoin in check (and to mimic the scarcity of real gold), the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half roughly every four years. This event is what’s known as the Bitcoin halving.
Think of it like a game where the amount of gold coins you get for completing a level is reduced by half after you reach certain milestones. Initially, miners received 50 Bitcoins for each block mined. Then, after the first halving, it dropped to 25, then to 12.5, and so on.
The halving is a big deal because it reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, making them more scarce. This scarcity can affect the price of Bitcoin, as there are fewer new coins being made and more people might want them. It’s a bit like if suddenly gold became harder to find on Earth; the gold that’s already out there would probably become more valuable.
Supply: 18,925,000 / 21,000,000
Release date: January 3, 2009
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Risk warning: Trading, buying or selling crypto currencies is extremely risky and not for everyone. Do not risk money that you could not afford to loose.
Current price action
Since beginning writing this post, BTC has actually passed its all time high in several fiat currencies due to their declining value. Some examples include the fiat currencies in South Korea and Australia. But of course, it’s with the US dollar that everyone is waiting for.
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s value to record highs against various currencies highlights the weakening of these currencies amidst escalating inflation rates. Inflation leads to a gradual reduction in the buying power of a currency over time.
Market experts suggest that Bitcoin has begun exploring new price territories following its breakthrough of the significant $57,000 resistance level. With the Bitcoin halving event looming in just 49 days, the positive trend for Bitcoin may propel it to unprecedented levels after the halving, mirroring past trends.
What happens next?
At this point, it almost feels like an inevitability that we’re going to pass the ATH in the dollar any time now, and it really is just a question of when according to most Bitcoin maximalists. Most of the team at CryptoLists.com would be incredibly surprised if there was a pullback now before the high is reached, and wouldn’t be surprised if the usual pattern of a dip pre-halving didn’t occur this cycle. But everything can of course happen in the world of crypto.
Historically, Bitcoin’s value has experienced a minimum increase of 270% following each halving event. For instance, the value of Bitcoin escalated from $12 to $964 within a year after the 2012 halving. Similarly, its price rose from around $660 to $2,500 a year following the 2016 halving. In 2020, the price of Bitcoin increased from approx $8,500 to $68,783 in just over a year after the halving.
Each surge in Bitcoin’s price can be attributed to specific factors. The 2017 increase to $17,000 was propelled by the retail sector, while the 2021 spike to nearly $69,000 was driven by institutional investment. In 2024, it’s suggested that institutional involvement is significantly influencing the market, as seen by the substantial daily investments into newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
These spot Bitcoin ETFs are attracting an average daily investment close to $500 million, whereas the new Bitcoin supplied to the market only satisfies about one-tenth of the demand from these ETFs. Market experts argue that the combination of strong institutional interest and the constrained supply, further tightened by the upcoming halving, will likely serve as a key driver for Bitcoin’s price increase post-halving.
2024-2025 Bitcoin price predictions
Some online analysts are predicting what’s known in expert circles as a ‘left translated cycle’, meaning that the cycle high will happen earlier than previous rounds. From that, we might expect to see the top of this four-year cycle (that began in December 2022 / January 2023) may occur this year as opposed to the previously nailed-on 2025. If it does occur in 2024, we might expect to see a ‘blow off top’, which is an incredibly fast rise over a few months before dropping in stages before the cycle end at the tail end of 2026. However, given the ‘once in a lifetime’ aspect of institutional mega investment, it really is impossible to know for sure.
However, some people are estimating an approximate 3x increase from November 2021’s ATH to a 2024/2025 which would stick to the usual trends. Others are optimistically predicting a ‘supercycle’ where all bets are off and the numbers may get eye-wateringly high.
So, it really could be anything from $100k all the way up to $1,000,000 if you take certain Bitcoin maximalist commentators seriously! But there are obviously many negative analysts also. One of the world’s most iconic investors, Warren Buffett, said as late as April 2024 that “it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero”, about the Bitcoin price. He even suggests that Bitcoin is evil, because it undermines the central bank of the United States. Warren Buffett sees BTC as an unproductive asset and would probably rather gamble on Bitcoin casinos than keep the world most well-known cryptocurrency if he had the choice between HODL or being able to cash out if he could play Lightning Roulette as an alternative. But he is not a gambler either, so who knows.
Thought about playing on Bitcoin casinos?
Can you imagine winning a few Satoshis (fragments, or smaller denominations, of Bitcoin) that are worth a particular amount and then minutes later they’re worth 10% or even 20% more? You’ve successfully imaged what it’s like to play on a top Bitcoin casino site during a bull market.
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Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.
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